Why Trump Might Be the Best Thing to Happen to Europe
With Donald Trump eyeing a return to the White House, Europe faces a critical test. His vision signals a lasting shift in America’s global role — one that challenges EU reliance on transatlantic ties. But within this threat lies an opportunity: to strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy. By unlocking the full power of the single market and euro, the EU can reduce dependency, boost resilience, and assert itself on the world stage.
Donald Trump’s political intentions for a second term are not improvisational — they reflect a strategic vision to reshape the United States’ global role. His approach threatens to weaken multilateral institutions, increase pressure on US allies, and accelerate America’s retreat from traditional global leadership. For Europe, this isn’t just a challenge — it’s a wake-up call.
The EU must respond by reinforcing its own strategic autonomy. If the transatlantic relationship becomes more transactional, the European project must become more integrated and self-sustaining. Paradoxically, Trump’s antagonistic posture may offer Europe the political momentum it needs to become more unified, more confident, and more capable on the global stage.
Europe’s Two Untapped Superpowers: The Single Market and the Euro
Europe already holds considerable strength — its single market and the euro — but both are underutilised. The single market has given the EU economic resilience, but it remains fragmented. To truly compete in a world of continental powers, Europe must scale up, particularly in finance, energy, innovation, and defence.
Without strategic scale in these areas, Europe risks falling into economic dependence — what some have called “a colony of consumption.” Much of the continent’s digital infrastructure is controlled by foreign platforms. Its industrial base is financed increasingly by non-European investors. And its energy and defence rely on actors outside its borders. These aren’t just economic vulnerabilities — they are political risks that constrain Europe’s ability to act in its own interests.
A Capital-Rich Continent That Underinvests in Itself
One urgent priority is to unlock the full potential of Europe’s capital markets. Despite being a capital-rich region, the EU chronically underinvests in itself. Every year, billions in household savings flow out of the EU or sit stagnant in low-yielding bank accounts. If properly mobilised, these resources could fuel the continent’s strategic goals — from green and digital transitions to industrial competitiveness.
Creating a truly unified European capital market would allow savings to be channelled efficiently into European businesses. It would enhance innovation, lower financing costs, and provide citizens with better investment products. But to get there, Europe needs a coordinated strategy.
This includes:
- Creating secure and attractive pan-European savings products
- Consolidating trading and post-trading infrastructure
- Centralising cross-border supervision
- Aligning tax, insolvency, and company laws
- Introducing a “28th regime” — a unified regulatory framework across all EU countries
- Supporting globally competitive asset managers
- Strengthening the ecosystem for scale-ups and start-ups
These proposals, outlined in the Much More Than a Market report, form the foundation for a European savings and investments union. To give this ambition real weight, policymakers could adopt binding deadlines, just as they did with the creation of the euro. A proposed launch date of 1 July 2027 could serve as a catalyst for progress.
Elevating the Euro as a Tool of Sovereignty
The euro, too, remains an underleveraged tool. While it accounts for nearly 20% of global reserves, the lack of a genuine European safe asset — and fragmented capital markets — limits its influence. As ECB President Christine Lagarde has emphasised, strengthening the euro is essential for the EU’s resilience and global credibility.
In a world where economic power is weaponised through sanctions, supply chains, and financial coercion, the international role of the euro is no longer a technical issue — it is a question of sovereignty. A stronger euro would also help the EU attract investment and lower borrowing costs for governments and businesses alike.
Recent initiatives such as NextGenerationEU, the SAFE instrument for defence funding, and the digital euro project have laid important groundwork. But more is needed.
One bold proposal is to significantly scale up the issuance of supranational EU bonds — not necessarily by taking on new debt, but by gradually replacing parts of national debt with common bonds. This would create a large, deep, and liquid Eurobond market — something global investors are actively seeking as an alternative to US Treasuries. Such a market would form the financial backbone of a truly sovereign European economy.
Europe’s Strategic Choice: Renew or Decline
The global order is being reshaped in real time. If Europe wishes to remain a relevant global actor, it must act decisively and collectively. Economic and financial integration is not an abstract goal — it is the foundation of Europe’s ability to act independently in a turbulent world.
As Jacques Delors once warned, Europe stands at a crossroads: it must choose between renewal and decline. Without bold, coordinated action, demographic and economic trends will push the continent toward irrelevance. But decline is not inevitable. With the right political will and strategic vision, Europe can use this moment to equip itself for long-term strength.
By building on its unique assets — its market, currency, institutions, and values — the EU can not only resist marginalisation but lead with confidence, shaping its own future in an increasingly uncertain world.
Will is an Independent Financial Adviser with over a decade of experience helping expats make the most of their international status.